Will "fire" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "fire" (5 distinct creators, rank #125). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.857769160254499,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29780564263322884
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fire",
    "rank60": 125,
    "share15": 0.002232142857142857,
    "share60": 0.005263157894736842,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 0.42410714285714285,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924363888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29780564263322884
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.0790968899521531,
  "totalAfter": 1215,
  "shareBefore": 0.004730368968779565,
  "totalBefore": 1057,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity