Ledger / Prediction #3021 · narrative · 6H

Will "revolut" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "revolut" (23 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -0.9613098391953392,
      "diversity": 0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3163099372809088
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "revolut",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.011160714285714286,
    "share60": 0.029186602870813396,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 0.38239168618266983,
    "diversity": 0.7666666666666667,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987393981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3163099372809088
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.100

Log loss0.380

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007505394502298527,
  "shareRatio": 0.18537032073617438,
  "totalAfter": 10659,
  "shareBefore": 0.004233815897295821,
  "totalBefore": 7322,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "revolut" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.08% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "revolut" (6H). momentum contributed -0.96 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash72611a3b333479dbebdf9aa0454788443996f7af6d03dec56e6e0a0f422f6363

Previous hashbc52d9f9b3e4c30e0c3e320acecd7dfc24b23115809a7eff90ec17b43ae0517a