Will "cap" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1044 launches in the last hour referenced "cap" (4 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": 0.44151382387576177,
      "diversity": -0.708
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42249603534302393
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cap",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03794642857142857,
    "share60": 0.024401913875598084,
    "total15": 223,
    "total60": 1044,
    "momentum": 1.5550595238095237,
    "diversity": 0.16,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 105,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924363888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996848495370371
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42249603534302393
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003808212892865336,
  "shareRatio": 1.4967743826978637,
  "totalAfter": 43590,
  "shareBefore": 0.0025413498803447763,
  "totalBefore": 47219,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 166,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 120
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity