Ledger / Prediction #3029 · token · 1H

Will $FAGBEAR still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 09:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HVF4Y7g3gLfaLindxFoVSxEghLNQky3Pu2ZN74Dmpump",
    "name": "Freddy Fagbear",
    "symbol": "FAGBEAR",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3141.9787162787766,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 318,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T09:46:15.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2988.5368129735975,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3623.910531220874,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3141.9787162787766,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6283.957432557553
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $FAGBEAR would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,989, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $FAGBEAR (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf59f82a029d15f3f85db2208cfdfe06f5d9df9c5c2ae73fed5577d55b2162f53

Previous hashdda51a30ea3561b1470fef185cfdafa3736fd31000df71937ab1dc30c5a2a878