Ledger / Prediction #303 · narrative · 1H

Will "candle" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

62 of 2706 launches in the last hour referenced "candle" (8 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.46×.

Made2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 20:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.37765447089164866,
      "momentum": 0.3803258279568095,
      "diversity": -0.7451612903225806
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4286941466699398
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "candle",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03377265238879736,
    "share60": 0.023088289619504987,
    "total15": 606,
    "total60": 2706,
    "momentum": 1.4627611202635913,
    "diversity": 0.12903225806451613,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 62,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 464,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9951961111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9951961111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4286941466699398
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 20:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.184

Log loss0.560

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014530551415797318,
  "shareRatio": 0.6317775920468043,
  "totalAfter": 2684,
  "shareBefore": 0.023110785033015408,
  "totalBefore": 2726,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "candle" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.31% → 1.45% (-37%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "candle" (1H). diversity contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc4a9d5e3224051364aae9490a6832d1d6b7566190af779e62d592ec43982e7e0

Previous hash455f2375c499ca18ce3669eb720ccd04d083a2e713665b112dca91b35c9c3c4e