Ledger / Prediction #3035 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (19 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.
Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": 0.10872004198202803,
"diversity": 0.09130434782608696
},
"rawProbability": 0.5321886300695069
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.025510204081632654,
"share60": 0.022882181110029213,
"total15": 293,
"total60": 1026,
"momentum": 1.1148501953973078,
"diversity": 0.8260869565217391,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 106,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974333333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5321886300695069
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.283
Log loss0.760
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010560519902518278,
"shareRatio": 0.4802777010223819,
"totalAfter": 1231,
"shareBefore": 0.022351797862001945,
"totalBefore": 1029,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 13,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 23
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.24% → 1.06% (-53%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ee6e8a56d0ab56aa52b6b7d5c03368dc53da9fd46465f8bc262edf8cd8214ad4Previous hash
5ff2117c95fc2c5f990daa70d79c9311b1d9b1906935f7627fe18064d92a4a07