Ledger / Prediction #3036 · narrative · 1H

Will "works" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "works" (5 distinct creators, rank #130). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.1470778302084939,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.24102323398263323
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "works",
    "rank60": 130,
    "share15": 0.0017006802721088435,
    "share60": 0.005355404089581304,
    "total15": 293,
    "total60": 1026,
    "momentum": 0.3175633889919604,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 106,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974333333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.24102323398263323
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.058

Log loss0.276

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016246953696181965,
  "shareRatio": 0.3800177095631641,
  "totalAfter": 1231,
  "shareBefore": 0.004859086491739553,
  "totalBefore": 1029,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "works" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 0.16% (-67%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "works" (1H). momentum contributed -1.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9af00b822af8f2b75d58aa719c9d14d2c9a362bc9d134ed6f603d4491ef31ca1

Previous hashee6e8a56d0ab56aa52b6b7d5c03368dc53da9fd46465f8bc262edf8cd8214ad4