Will "seals" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 9% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
45 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "seals" (33 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3295836866004329,
"momentum": -3.2600420639269734,
"diversity": -0.020000000000000063
},
"rawProbability": 0.08585566800279507
},
"features": {
"term": "seals",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.0017006802721088435,
"share60": 0.04430379746835443,
"total15": 293,
"total60": 1026,
"momentum": 0.038386783284742466,
"diversity": 0.7333333333333333,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 45,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 33
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 106,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722222222222
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.08585566800279507
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.009984978351153133,
"shareRatio": 1.2168762185913418,
"totalAfter": 11317,
"shareBefore": 0.00817287712979637,
"totalBefore": 7219,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 113,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 59
}Predicted 9% that "seals" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.82% → 1.00% (+22%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "seals" (6H). momentum contributed -3.26 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
— Overconfident: 91% and wrong on "seals". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
f9c458ade81fb836c805ce53db301a7b35102af9454a3f68635359fa90d0797d0d374fa41a91274fdc6bd53738f73871b57cd119fac71a50a6606dd46a5d0ff4