GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3038 · narrative · 6H

Will "seals" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "seals" (33 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": -3.2600420639269734,
      "diversity": -0.020000000000000063
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08585566800279507
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "seals",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0017006802721088435,
    "share60": 0.04430379746835443,
    "total15": 293,
    "total60": 1026,
    "momentum": 0.038386783284742466,
    "diversity": 0.7333333333333333,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 106,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.08585566800279507
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.836
Log loss2.455
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.009984978351153133,
  "shareRatio": 1.2168762185913418,
  "totalAfter": 11317,
  "shareBefore": 0.00817287712979637,
  "totalBefore": 7219,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 113,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that "seals" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.82% → 1.00% (+22%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "seals" (6H). momentum contributed -3.26 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 91% and wrong on "seals". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf9c458ade81fb836c805ce53db301a7b35102af9454a3f68635359fa90d0797d
Previous hash0d374fa41a91274fdc6bd53738f73871b57cd119fac71a50a6606dd46a5d0ff4