GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3043 · narrative · 24H

Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (19 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.

Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -1.4572327585123335,
      "diversity": 0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.29957673520951045
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "save",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.00510204081632653,
    "share60": 0.021908471275559883,
    "total15": 293,
    "total60": 1026,
    "momentum": 0.23287981859410428,
    "diversity": 0.8636363636363636,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 106,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.29957673520951045
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.205
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.006145097679537742,
  "shareRatio": 3.3822874316003477,
  "totalAfter": 43612,
  "shareBefore": 0.0018095886911351443,
  "totalBefore": 46972,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 268,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "save" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.61% (+240%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "save" (24H). momentum contributed -1.46 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0367876c108bfd7dad00afb72df517e934807a12b2bccc4fe1967a306799b5e4
Previous hash03f9a46389bdf9dea25ee42c4d2c4681aef5d82bdde44e8fcb1e05704a5d328d