Ledger / Prediction #3043 · narrative · 24H
Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
22 of 1026 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (19 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.23×.
Made2026-10-13 10:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22224068113863232,
"momentum": -1.4572327585123335,
"diversity": 0.13636363636363638
},
"rawProbability": 0.29957673520951045
},
"features": {
"term": "save",
"rank60": 8,
"share15": 0.00510204081632653,
"share60": 0.021908471275559883,
"total15": 293,
"total60": 1026,
"momentum": 0.23287981859410428,
"diversity": 0.8636363636363636,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 22,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 106,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974333333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930555555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.29957673520951045
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.491
Log loss1.205
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.006145097679537742,
"shareRatio": 3.3822874316003477,
"totalAfter": 43612,
"shareBefore": 0.0018095886911351443,
"totalBefore": 46972,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 268,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 85
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "save" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.61% (+240%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "save" (24H). momentum contributed -1.46 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
0367876c108bfd7dad00afb72df517e934807a12b2bccc4fe1967a306799b5e4Previous hash
03f9a46389bdf9dea25ee42c4d2c4681aef5d82bdde44e8fcb1e05704a5d328d