Ledger / Prediction #3054 · narrative · 6H
Will "claude" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
60 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "claude" (35 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.58×.
Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3727359974682,
"momentum": 1.2757468292130925,
"diversity": -0.19999999999999996
},
"rawProbability": 0.6712707245095351
},
"features": {
"term": "claude",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.17921686746987953,
"share60": 0.0500413564929694,
"total15": 331,
"total60": 1208,
"momentum": 3.581375087125361,
"diversity": 0.5833333333333334,
"launches15": 59,
"launches60": 60,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 35
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 136,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991076388888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6712707245095351
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.451
Log loss1.113
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002607671601615074,
"shareRatio": 0.23902227681525812,
"totalAfter": 11888,
"shareBefore": 0.0110165946172082,
"totalBefore": 7171,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 31,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 79
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 67% that "claude" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.10% → 0.26% (-76%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "claude" (6H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f83c22810a909acc7576c90cc091db3ae5926ece828409597031c6c90a79ea58Previous hash
850164e2f99eb7c015498c052b04722c68372606c40cccbbbed6aa27a7417635