Ledger / Prediction #3056 · narrative · 6H
Will "git" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "git" (17 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 3.53×.
Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 17:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 1.2601530194800827,
"diversity": -0.24193548387096778
},
"rawProbability": 0.646646304759557
},
"features": {
"term": "git",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.09186746987951808,
"share60": 0.026054590570719603,
"total15": 331,
"total60": 1208,
"momentum": 3.5259609868043604,
"diversity": 0.5483870967741935,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 136,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991076388888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.646646304759557
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 17:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.418
Log loss1.040
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00008411843876177658,
"shareRatio": 0.02622811733169499,
"totalAfter": 11888,
"shareBefore": 0.004741319202342769,
"totalBefore": 7171,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 34
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "git" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.47% → 0.01% (-98%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "git" (6H). momentum contributed +1.26 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2ca4ad8d089e5566af2d8500da5442646f0dbc8823f40667706a3ba179904e54Previous hash
e7dc3be599922ccff9116b82c13ba20b0e18854788f0fbd8ad68c4f5f50a267f