Ledger / Prediction #3059 · narrative · 24H
Will "repo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "repo" (17 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.53×.
Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 1.2601530194800827,
"diversity": -0.24193548387096778
},
"rawProbability": 0.5856351125989347
},
"features": {
"term": "repo",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.09186746987951808,
"share60": 0.026054590570719603,
"total15": 331,
"total60": 1208,
"momentum": 3.5259609868043604,
"diversity": 0.5483870967741935,
"launches15": 30,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 136,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769097222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5856351125989347
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.881
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00013730919742774102,
"shareRatio": 0.07146322486154974,
"totalAfter": 43697,
"shareBefore": 0.002070835379261758,
"totalBefore": 46841,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 97
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "repo" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.01% (-93%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "repo" (24H). momentum contributed +1.26 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
89b4c63ee5fb708fc2f7c751f9352c7525575593393a0f6459a90964cab668d3Previous hash
e224abb77659195fe466c9f3d5d03c29e006aae765c0c4ef16c4767b8d67655c