GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3059 · narrative · 24H

Will "repo" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1208 launches in the last hour referenced "repo" (17 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.53×.

Made2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 10:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 1.2601530194800827,
      "diversity": -0.24193548387096778
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5856351125989347
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "repo",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.09186746987951808,
    "share60": 0.026054590570719603,
    "total15": 331,
    "total60": 1208,
    "momentum": 3.5259609868043604,
    "diversity": 0.5483870967741935,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 136,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946458333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769097222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5856351125989347
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.343
Log loss0.881
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00013730919742774102,
  "shareRatio": 0.07146322486154974,
  "totalAfter": 43697,
  "shareBefore": 0.002070835379261758,
  "totalBefore": 46841,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 97
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "repo" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.01% (-93%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "repo" (24H). momentum contributed +1.26 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash89b4c63ee5fb708fc2f7c751f9352c7525575593393a0f6459a90964cab668d3
Previous hashe224abb77659195fe466c9f3d5d03c29e006aae765c0c4ef16c4767b8d67655c