Ledger / Prediction #3066 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1231 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (22 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": 0.12790074711769436,
      "diversity": -0.31333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.461116446416748
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.041970802919708027,
    "share60": 0.036931818181818184,
    "total15": 273,
    "total60": 1231,
    "momentum": 1.1364402021336326,
    "diversity": 0.4888888888888889,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 146,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999197222222223,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999197222222223
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.461116446416748
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.213

Log loss0.618

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015271838729383017,
  "shareRatio": 0.42152719075795997,
  "totalAfter": 1637,
  "shareBefore": 0.036555645816409424,
  "totalBefore": 1231,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.66% → 1.53% (-58%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). diversity contributed -0.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash62491a0267aedc08c519cbe007feb137bc13af26be6ca8d7397617b4a80d2630

Previous hash05231f89c492b62b7c1010bc5a1853f4dd4148e1dd2013dcba8bbc90c6435fda