Ledger / Prediction #3080 · token · 6H

Will $Suprised Cat still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 23m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "cat".

Made2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4gzoev1ZTH344qgX7nkBiwmrfaYrjeB7p8Ut9QCUpump",
    "name": "Scientists reveal the Hi",
    "symbol": "Suprised Cat",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 23,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3582.705519675853,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 405,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T13:17:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2977.3532156812303,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3668.9932236022455,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3582.705519675853,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7165.411039351706
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $Suprised Cat would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,977, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Suprised Cat (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc8d7d5ca8e8083b20061cc6f29c9e0467a359aa08f1db8adb72cc8f2e64799ad

Previous hashc5581a8efc1e3fd3069868a14bd3f3130b168566af97a1a480330d5ea9d39cdf