Ledger / Prediction #3081 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (18 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.13×.

Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 0.7547246187907094,
      "diversity": -0.6081081081081081
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5623760041041759
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.12059620596205962,
    "share60": 0.05669710806697108,
    "total15": 368,
    "total60": 1313,
    "momentum": 2.1270256997871995,
    "diversity": 0.24324324324324326,
    "launches15": 44,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974116666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5623760041041759
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.191

Log loss0.576

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.07505773672055427,
  "shareRatio": 1.3311943055646993,
  "totalAfter": 1732,
  "shareBefore": 0.05623100303951368,
  "totalBefore": 1316,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 130,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.62% → 7.51% (+33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8275d81fe229186806915b56f3a903b789cb74bb14f25cd05baac9c5a8bcbb74

Previous hashc8d7d5ca8e8083b20061cc6f29c9e0467a359aa08f1db8adb72cc8f2e64799ad