Will "bob" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1313 launches in the last hour referenced "bob" (5 distinct creators, rank #102). Last 15m momentum 0.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.1963025137893983,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4138024904095739
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bob",
    "rank60": 102,
    "share15": 0.0040650406504065045,
    "share60": 0.004946727549467275,
    "total15": 368,
    "total60": 1313,
    "momentum": 0.8217636022514072,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 134,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974116666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995686111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4138024904095739
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0042754975124378106,
  "shareRatio": 2.4375996890788962,
  "totalAfter": 12864,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016992353440951572,
  "totalBefore": 7062,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 55,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity