Ledger / Prediction #3094 · token · 6H

Will $LARP still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "larp".

Made2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12516099799833535
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "3SRDfZcnwHfXK1pGUjBxo49U5hSrgh2JsM985Lnkpump",
    "name": "GOOF ASF LARP COUNTRY VIRAL!",
    "symbol": "LARP",
    "hotTerms": [
      "larp",
      "viral"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2981.139509430292,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 470,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.12516099799833535
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 18:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 2981.139509430292,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2981.139509430292,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5962.279018860584
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that $LARP would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,981, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $LARP (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha74a9007853171d3414e3766e4ddcfc9bf01b05c3c64fd121d05cfda43089a57

Previous hash75353789d6be14346950680b4b233310ea9cb8a5557f749dc212f3a0a5e32377