Ledger / Prediction #3099 · narrative · 1H

Will "finally" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "finally" (4 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.

Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -0.8426477094325608,
      "diversity": -0.7829268292682927
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16659494247154288
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "finally",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.010948905109489052,
    "share60": 0.02542892156862745,
    "total15": 410,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.43056899129364173,
    "diversity": 0.0975609756097561,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 193,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957286111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16659494247154288
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.028

Log loss0.182

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008719346049046322,
  "shareRatio": 0.3547129695251594,
  "totalAfter": 1835,
  "shareBefore": 0.02504581551618815,
  "totalBefore": 1637,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "finally" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.50% → 0.87% (-65%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "finally" (1H). momentum contributed -0.84 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash85e69647531ccea1f6d06b26ab1406dd0d4c4587cb892ba849825ace08d5ff01

Previous hash0ea4ed26c0c9f429cf01db3790a0b5e95f6e16d202a831c72066901927da6d39