GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3108 · narrative · 24H

Will "pure" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "pure" (6 distinct creators, rank #162). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.

Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.0873687477656093,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45511856400580203
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pure",
    "rank60": 162,
    "share15": 0.0036496350364963502,
    "share60": 0.003982843137254902,
    "total15": 410,
    "total60": 1631,
    "momentum": 0.9163391353172375,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 193,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999822025462963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45511856400580203
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.297
Log loss0.787
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0037766943624253243,
  "shareRatio": 1.043580108156858,
  "totalAfter": 43689,
  "shareBefore": 0.003619105409153953,
  "totalBefore": 46144,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 165,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 167
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "pure" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.38% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "pure" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash278b0f2c66de191a546de06717e33dca0d3968ef4d7a5c5c59eca9a418205e85
Previous hash4cc6dfb8f85caf5a8dfc2b1bb8f228d1c44fcceaa7687c40ce8eef6b910afc13