Ledger / Prediction #3108 · narrative · 24H
Will "pure" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 1631 launches in the last hour referenced "pure" (6 distinct creators, rank #162). Last 15m momentum 0.92×.
Made2026-10-13 12:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -0.0873687477656093,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.45511856400580203
},
"features": {
"term": "pure",
"rank60": 162,
"share15": 0.0036496350364963502,
"share60": 0.003982843137254902,
"total15": 410,
"total60": 1631,
"momentum": 0.9163391353172375,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 193,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957286111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999822025462963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.45511856400580203
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 12:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.297
Log loss0.787
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0037766943624253243,
"shareRatio": 1.043580108156858,
"totalAfter": 43689,
"shareBefore": 0.003619105409153953,
"totalBefore": 46144,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 165,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 167
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 46% that "pure" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.38% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "pure" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
278b0f2c66de191a546de06717e33dca0d3968ef4d7a5c5c59eca9a418205e85Previous hash
4cc6dfb8f85caf5a8dfc2b1bb8f228d1c44fcceaa7687c40ce8eef6b910afc13