Ledger / Prediction #3114 · narrative · 1H
Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (5 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.99×.
Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 1.3844720072556889,
"diversity": -0.8016393442622951
},
"rawProbability": 0.6588217750412986
},
"features": {
"term": "robot",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.14267990074441686,
"share60": 0.035735037768739104,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1720,
"momentum": 3.992717222457584,
"diversity": 0.08196721311475409,
"launches15": 57,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 207,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932533333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6588217750412986
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 14:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.434
Log loss1.075
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005154639175257732,
"shareRatio": 0.021776554705268843,
"totalAfter": 1940,
"shareBefore": 0.03521939953810624,
"totalBefore": 1732,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 66% that "robot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.52% → 0.05% (-99%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "robot" (1H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
921bd426e52a12d535c0c29fc11f9e48a080ef58ec5ecacd32c295ae4d8e1c40Previous hash
41825c28082921861e166ae5312b845daca34e87eb9f6ae8a7155dd20590dc71