Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (36 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.91×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -0.09887317814631062,
      "diversity": -0.018367346938775463
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48128795134135083
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.026054590570719603,
    "share60": 0.02876234747239977,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 0.905857583276938,
    "diversity": 0.7346938775510204,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932533333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48128795134135083
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04742268041237113,
  "shareRatio": 1.6684360347420626,
  "totalAfter": 1940,
  "shareBefore": 0.028290993071593534,
  "totalBefore": 1732,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity