Ledger / Prediction #3116 · narrative · 1H

Will "usms" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "usms" (4 distinct creators, rank #262). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9461710385335141,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23394444178244683
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "usms",
    "rank60": 262,
    "share15": 0.0012406947890818859,
    "share60": 0.0031958163858221964,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 0.38822467854725917,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932533333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23394444178244683
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.055

Log loss0.266

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005154639175257732,
  "shareRatio": 0.24350147534073344,
  "totalAfter": 1940,
  "shareBefore": 0.002886836027713626,
  "totalBefore": 1732,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "usms" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.05% (-82%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "usms" (1H). momentum contributed -0.95 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha0ea2fe88da66732aee982b479bfebf1310fb86bd4cb8d96c7af49b5089fc66e

Previous hashe86c637c4958a5862ee8e961be391ad5c431dd65346a1eee6512e6e61489e6fe