Ledger / Prediction #3118 · narrative · 6H
Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (5 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.99×.
Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 19:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 1.3844720072556889,
"diversity": -0.8016393442622951
},
"rawProbability": 0.5916120790834464
},
"features": {
"term": "robot",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.14267990074441686,
"share60": 0.035735037768739104,
"total15": 402,
"total60": 1720,
"momentum": 3.992717222457584,
"diversity": 0.08196721311475409,
"launches15": 57,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 207,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988755555555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5916120790834464
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 19:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.350
Log loss0.896
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0010495539395756804,
"shareRatio": 0.11766882516188715,
"totalAfter": 13339,
"shareBefore": 0.009173109684182938,
"totalBefore": 7631,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 14,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 70
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "robot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.92% → 0.10% (-89%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "robot" (6H). momentum contributed +1.38 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
44a547c9f23042180801870460e1d33238a7256d2d349b43adb1ece39d644385Previous hash
134b3d62d8c8f861bc4ca0cf46365d464afce5daea655c286ed4b1e6c9955786