GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3124 · narrative · 24H

Will "pussy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1720 launches in the last hour referenced "pussy" (14 distinct creators, rank #23). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

Made2026-10-13 13:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 12:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": -0.2828768211232499,
      "diversity": -0.22799999999999992
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3929972833991143
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pussy",
    "rank60": 23,
    "share15": 0.011166253101736972,
    "share60": 0.014816966879721092,
    "total15": 402,
    "total60": 1720,
    "momentum": 0.7536126112976208,
    "diversity": 0.56,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 207,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932533333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997188888888889
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3929972833991143
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.154
Log loss0.499
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012382765025568117,
  "shareRatio": 0.9336476492487925,
  "totalAfter": 43609,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013276743932963326,
  "totalBefore": 45945,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 54,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "pussy" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.12% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "pussy" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcc34185d852824864f987e749a942d9a2f00933115035477b411a32e02d44156
Previous hash915640cd84966e99ab9cb02551e74d790610feb7584b231d29bdf26c168e2bcc