Ledger / Prediction #3129 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

75 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (20 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4062075301653315,
      "momentum": -1.1086865055838668,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17044468511390692
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.013569937369519834,
    "share60": 0.04112200435729847,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 0.3299921193435552,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 75,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993516666666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17044468511390692
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.029

Log loss0.187

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.039045553145336226,
  "shareRatio": 0.955580681634631,
  "totalAfter": 1844,
  "shareBefore": 0.04087193460490463,
  "totalBefore": 1835,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 75
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.09% → 3.90% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1957347a7f9d1b5105b4d7229abc99c84e58bd6eecaa35be5c97e6a317bb6d1f

Previous hashb100cedb977dc17726fc56488afd895e23c135adb94170199ac6e39b39bcd68e