GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #313 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

160 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (112 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.17×.

Made2026-10-09 20:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 21:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5198603854199589,
      "momentum": 0.15438383320712995,
      "diversity": -0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5779208872572441
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.07187017001545595,
    "share60": 0.06158864159631619,
    "total15": 646,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 1.166938710655939,
    "diversity": 0.7,
    "launches15": 46,
    "launches60": 160,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 112
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 377,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921322222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921322222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5779208872572441
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.334
Log loss0.863
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.05087847730600293,
  "shareRatio": 0.8245377015958795,
  "totalAfter": 2732,
  "shareBefore": 0.06173780487804878,
  "totalBefore": 2624,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 139,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 162
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.17% → 5.09% (-18%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.52 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf62a8c6c841dbb2d15efde88cf12fc4efc7476e7c1991b5d68d440f1b2efa393
Previous hash96076bef4ad978d0fade845d48cabe1fd5a0930401091ac7c43eaa829715a202