GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3130 · narrative · 1H

Will "seal" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1835 launches in the last hour referenced "seal" (41 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.90×.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 0.6423334825704143,
      "diversity": -0.0934426229508197
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6511518745497687
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "seal",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.06367432150313153,
    "share60": 0.03349673202614379,
    "total15": 478,
    "total60": 1835,
    "momentum": 1.9009114517032437,
    "diversity": 0.6721311475409836,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993516666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993516666666666
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6511518745497687
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.424
Log loss1.053
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.020607375271149676,
  "shareRatio": 0.62296252230815,
  "totalAfter": 1844,
  "shareBefore": 0.0332425068119891,
  "totalBefore": 1835,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 38,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "seal" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.32% → 2.06% (-38%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "seal" (1H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6bd0625da7f7b1b93e71cd4cefe38cd4d0a48363369d62aef4dd53f6afcd7d93
Previous hash1957347a7f9d1b5105b4d7229abc99c84e58bd6eecaa35be5c97e6a317bb6d1f