Ledger / Prediction #314 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

133 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (76 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.70×.

Made2026-10-09 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.49213668236814795,
      "momentum": 0.5333646234959808,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6250913942497767
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.08732612055641421,
    "share60": 0.0512279355333845,
    "total15": 646,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 1.704658203520715,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 56,
    "launches60": 133,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 76
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 377,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921322222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921322222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6250913942497767
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.391

Log loss0.981

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.035505124450951685,
  "shareRatio": 0.7014763378926726,
  "totalAfter": 2732,
  "shareBefore": 0.0506859756097561,
  "totalBefore": 2624,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 97,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.07% → 3.55% (-30%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.53 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc623af5f00a5f4a035bd1b4880f9b77da2b1e23ae6d59b0de5383611c6bc913a

Previous hashf62a8c6c841dbb2d15efde88cf12fc4efc7476e7c1991b5d68d440f1b2efa393