Ledger / Prediction #3143 · token · 1H

Will $DOOBIE still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 21m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "doobie". Creator launched 33 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "B4VaHMhRrXHbSMCtgu4Xsbbk1wy2iNoD1CV66QUJpump",
    "name": "DOOBIE",
    "symbol": "DOOBIE",
    "hotTerms": [
      "doobie"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 21,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2494.1872885076637,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 33
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 664,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T13:10:15.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 7505.035882060946,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 7531.40464739104,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2494.1872885076637,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $DOOBIE would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $7,505, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $DOOBIE (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8b186cd92d73ffa6bb1461798787bc22c17787896db77e47e444de72913e5d88

Previous hash2557027f71f76eb9ecb5c3f069945e55c1c11cd3d3b7a164b2288a77bd931f08