Ledger / Prediction #3146 · narrative · 1H

Will "feetcoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

100 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "feetcoin" (100 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4493598410330986,
      "momentum": -3.9364684060885264,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feetcoin",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.051964839710444674,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.019517019365646412,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 100,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 100
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004828358208955224,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.05154639175257732,
  "totalBefore": 1940,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 100
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "feetcoin" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.15% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "feetcoin" (1H). momentum contributed -3.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash11b4d2b5790bf938c79f4281e516023c9f839dbcf39d2e8d19b43a4ad7b4963d

Previous hashd61255c0c1cbc7478bd25f9ec02dcb640452d5890c24bc307352f1aa38fad77b