Ledger / Prediction #3149 · narrative · 6H

Will "feet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

102 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "feet" (102 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.

Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45233023512752557,
      "momentum": -3.9561734771678587,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0729190970021456
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "feet",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
    "share60": 0.05299896587383661,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.01913619947558502,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 102,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 102
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993833333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.0729190970021456
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.005

Log loss0.076

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00021756472550583798,
  "shareRatio": 0.020399290797367207,
  "totalAfter": 13789,
  "shareBefore": 0.01238390092879257,
  "totalBefore": 8398,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 104
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that "feet" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.24% → 0.02% (-98%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "feet" (6H). momentum contributed -3.96 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash32e608eed9f49b4016dc7b6d77ca9337d2c2f565260ce1be33459b5c125c4ba1

Previous hashde0fc373fd2ed869bb009203ba21659b2890de529ee5bf7edf013bb51026aea7