Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

91 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (52 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43521323911241244,
      "momentum": -0.40866244638572513,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3937886257695349
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.03144016227180527,
    "share60": 0.04731127197518097,
    "total15": 492,
    "total60": 1933,
    "momentum": 0.6645385118434033,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 91,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 52
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 230,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993833333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3937886257695349
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.057944738559721515,
  "shareRatio": 1.4012866168269158,
  "totalAfter": 13789,
  "shareBefore": 0.04131936175279829,
  "totalBefore": 8398,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 799,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 347
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity