Ledger / Prediction #3153 · narrative · 24H
Will "feet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
102 of 1933 launches in the last hour referenced "feet" (102 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.02×.
Made2026-10-13 14:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 13:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.45233023512752557,
"momentum": -3.9561734771678587,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.12989113934445737
},
"features": {
"term": "feet",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.0010141987829614604,
"share60": 0.05299896587383661,
"total15": 492,
"total60": 1933,
"momentum": 0.01913619947558502,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 102,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 102
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 230,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998458333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.12989113934445737
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.017
Log loss0.139
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00009219138932423711,
"shareRatio": 0.04278510025426091,
"totalAfter": 43388,
"shareBefore": 0.002413127413127413,
"totalBefore": 45584,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 110
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 13% that "feet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.01% (-96%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "feet" (24H). momentum contributed -3.96 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4017e72929b5799f73286300ac396eecdb5a73b3cee400f4939b697447ea0e8fPrevious hash
dcd50201fbd5182901e45e658eabb1ed776a9a5e4a4804c9828e88e2a7d36667