Ledger / Prediction #3164 · narrative · 1H

Will "power" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "power" (4 distinct creators, rank #218). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

Made2026-10-13 14:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 14:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -1.0039043371264909,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22375711060314601
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "power",
    "rank60": 218,
    "share15": 0.0011037527593818985,
    "share60": 0.0030120481927710845,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.36644591611479027,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940675
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22375711060314601
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 15:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.050

Log loss0.253

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002221235006663705,
  "shareRatio": 0.819271758436945,
  "totalAfter": 2251,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027114967462039045,
  "totalBefore": 1844,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "power" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.22% (-18%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "power" (1H). momentum contributed -1.00 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8fbf8e0999417905501a6bfc8978549945edb694881c1fc47dc0a28ef30c976d

Previous hashb7ec311f4db7cc580df71a9ce2b51b2f9a3424df07f377cec2c066c0382994e9