Will "public" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

68 of 1825 launches in the last hour referenced "public" (68 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.391510468911301,
      "momentum": -3.525989990156245,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15222704165867706
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "public",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0011037527593818985,
    "share60": 0.03751369112814896,
    "total15": 452,
    "total60": 1825,
    "momentum": 0.02942266479753791,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 68,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 68
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 206,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940675,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997528125
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15222704165867706
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002610604135381772,
  "shareRatio": 0.4867512683179476,
  "totalAfter": 43285,
  "shareBefore": 0.005375987256919095,
  "totalBefore": 45201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 113,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 243
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity