Ledger / Prediction #3186 · narrative · 24H
Will "gov" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 32% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
51 of 1999 launches in the last hour referenced "gov" (31 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.
Made2026-10-13 15:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.34835815804353376,
"momentum": -1.1094789578975015,
"diversity": -0.1705882352941177
},
"rawProbability": 0.3173765388260964
},
"features": {
"term": "gov",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.008490566037735849,
"share60": 0.02575,
"total15": 529,
"total60": 1999,
"momentum": 0.3297307199120718,
"diversity": 0.6078431372549019,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 51,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 31
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 256,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996163888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999840162037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3173765388260964
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.466
Log loss1.148
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0017440238117384429,
"shareRatio": 1.30437456340364,
"totalAfter": 43004,
"shareBefore": 0.0013348461589801775,
"totalBefore": 44949,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 75,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 60
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 32% that "gov" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.17% (+31%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "gov" (24H). momentum contributed -1.11 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
56a158cdb90101eb45b28dadef843823bd1e2929025d6f38ce648f6d79c070fdPrevious hash
b5c20e8a63d8ee49646cf1d622310965440655982e3823aaa80059a8657eac1c