Ledger / Prediction #319 · narrative · 6H

Will "computer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2605 launches in the last hour referenced "computer" (32 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.48×.

Made2026-10-09 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -0.7414787571709955,
      "diversity": -0.06521739130434785
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3471317542669516
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "computer",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.008500772797527048,
    "share60": 0.017843438219493475,
    "total15": 646,
    "total60": 2605,
    "momentum": 0.4764089012979675,
    "diversity": 0.6956521739130435,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 377,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921322222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986887037037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3471317542669516
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.120

Log loss0.426

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00360740539068881,
  "shareRatio": 0.7823056738710304,
  "totalAfter": 14692,
  "shareBefore": 0.004621257785814748,
  "totalBefore": 14931,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "computer" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.46% → 0.36% (-22%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "computer" (6H). momentum contributed -0.74 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb5760125d7d71ee4e156c51e9cf5fd9cb02e283a0e422139762f97ddfdc06dad

Previous hashe2956def039d4a1a062b3491d0172f0d9d37a3525287c59b9e6dcd9afcd9c54b