Ledger / Prediction #3193 · narrative · 1H
Will "save" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
66 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "save" (44 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.60×.
Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3870325244388488,
"momentum": 0.47025411235162357,
"diversity": -0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.6123702939149314
},
"features": {
"term": "save",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.04740608228980322,
"share60": 0.029621380846325165,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2244,
"momentum": 1.600400823167041,
"diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
"launches15": 26,
"launches60": 66,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 44
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9973783333333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6123702939149314
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.375
Log loss0.948
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.003572846367606193,
"shareRatio": 0.12766439909297053,
"totalAfter": 2519,
"shareBefore": 0.029320302087960905,
"totalBefore": 2251,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 66
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "save" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.93% → 0.36% (-88%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "save" (1H). momentum contributed +0.47 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
bee2ab981d540001bd73684f77493762954e6248872a7ad52cc9ea03ed6b21f7Previous hash
f7f077da0e62a4b1f86141b72184d338b23bd8399c1ffee6a57adb25ac25f609