Will "fix6900" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
60 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "fix6900" (37 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3727359974682,
"momentum": 1.1896406315591044,
"diversity": -0.15999999999999995
},
"rawProbability": 0.7507051493791035
},
"features": {
"term": "fix6900",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.0885509838998211,
"share60": 0.02694877505567929,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2244,
"momentum": 3.2859001463652624,
"diversity": 0.6166666666666667,
"launches15": 49,
"launches60": 60,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9973783333333334
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7507051493791035
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.003572846367606193,
"shareRatio": 0.13583492063492064,
"totalAfter": 2519,
"shareBefore": 0.027543314082629944,
"totalBefore": 2251,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 9,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Predicted 75% that "fix6900" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.75% → 0.36% (-87%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fix6900" (1H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "fix6900". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.
2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
4903064dfe8b909347a900f629728d361f48b67ee8e3d743df9e0db90230452dbee2ab981d540001bd73684f77493762954e6248872a7ad52cc9ea03ed6b21f7