GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3194 · narrative · 1H

Will "fix6900" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "fix6900" (37 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.

Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 16:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": 1.1896406315591044,
      "diversity": -0.15999999999999995
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7507051493791035
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fix6900",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0885509838998211,
    "share60": 0.02694877505567929,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2244,
    "momentum": 3.2859001463652624,
    "diversity": 0.6166666666666667,
    "launches15": 49,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9973783333333334
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7507051493791035
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 16:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.564
Log loss1.389
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.003572846367606193,
  "shareRatio": 0.13583492063492064,
  "totalAfter": 2519,
  "shareBefore": 0.027543314082629944,
  "totalBefore": 2251,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 75% that "fix6900" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.75% → 0.36% (-87%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "fix6900" (1H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 75% and wrong on "fix6900". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4903064dfe8b909347a900f629728d361f48b67ee8e3d743df9e0db90230452d
Previous hashbee2ab981d540001bd73684f77493762954e6248872a7ad52cc9ea03ed6b21f7