Ledger / Prediction #3197 · narrative · 6H
Will "fix6900" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
60 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "fix6900" (37 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 3.29×.
Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3727359974682,
"momentum": 1.1896406315591044,
"diversity": -0.15999999999999995
},
"rawProbability": 0.6641099034835505
},
"features": {
"term": "fix6900",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.0885509838998211,
"share60": 0.02694877505567929,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2244,
"momentum": 3.2859001463652624,
"diversity": 0.6166666666666667,
"launches15": 49,
"launches60": 60,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995630555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6641099034835505
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 21:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.441
Log loss1.091
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0010951403148528405,
"shareRatio": 0.17757798918622955,
"totalAfter": 14610,
"shareBefore": 0.006309148264984227,
"totalBefore": 9827,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 16,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 66% that "fix6900" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.11% (-83%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fix6900" (6H). momentum contributed +1.19 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
170806b1bde977c3a1d25b15c82eacd4464b84939db75917ec6498564ccbafbePrevious hash
143cc2fb7ef67ebd430d0b7e355f695b65ea30133571af4cd163f17891af741f