Ledger / Prediction #3199 · narrative · 6H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
47 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (19 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.16×.
Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3361064533913937,
"momentum": 0.7682600681450404,
"diversity": -0.41489361702127664
},
"rawProbability": 0.5455312740522669
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.04561717352415027,
"share60": 0.021158129175946547,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2244,
"momentum": 2.156011674983523,
"diversity": 0.40425531914893614,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 47,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995630555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5455312740522669
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 21:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.298
Log loss0.789
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.005065023956194388,
"shareRatio": 0.5861049173477805,
"totalAfter": 14610,
"shareBefore": 0.008649638750381602,
"totalBefore": 9827,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 74,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 85
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 55% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.86% → 0.51% (-41%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "read" (6H). momentum contributed +0.77 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4a2150a86a83e20a5686ba673f774f7d638c8e704140e58ab5491cf4f74d878dPrevious hash
05de673dfc82b2052b9f8b25fbb32d712c28d7dc13acd7b0b139bd95ed05f89c