Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (42 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 0.10769539537620625,
      "diversity": -0.04576271186440679
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47903075846558024
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.029516994633273702,
    "share60": 0.026503340757238307,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2244,
    "momentum": 1.1137084529697387,
    "diversity": 0.711864406779661,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998907638888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47903075846558024
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.02083236131199552,
  "shareRatio": 1.3879417716628413,
  "totalAfter": 42866,
  "shareBefore": 0.015006790906864383,
  "totalBefore": 44913,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 893,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 674
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity