Will "index" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

48 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "index" (32 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 2.86×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3392644647710686,
      "momentum": 1.0497068531151321,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5852797299572012
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "index",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.061717352415026835,
    "share60": 0.02160356347438753,
    "total15": 558,
    "total60": 2244,
    "momentum": 2.856813529314129,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 48,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 281,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998907638888889
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5852797299572012
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012364111416973825,
  "shareRatio": 0.4982644510281154,
  "totalAfter": 42866,
  "shareBefore": 0.0024937100616747934,
  "totalBefore": 44913,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 112
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity