Ledger / Prediction #3204 · narrative · 24H
Will "makin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 38% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2244 launches in the last hour referenced "makin" (3 distinct creators, rank #228). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.
Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -0.07602574177217167,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.38358983414819503
},
"features": {
"term": "makin",
"rank60": 228,
"share15": 0.0026833631484794273,
"share60": 0.0028953229398663697,
"total15": 558,
"total60": 2244,
"momentum": 0.9267923489748175,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 281,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9973783333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998907638888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.38358983414819503
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 15:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.380
Log loss0.958
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002729435916577241,
"shareRatio": 2.0690907757882355,
"totalAfter": 42866,
"shareBefore": 0.0013136508360608286,
"totalBefore": 44913,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 117,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 59
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 38% that "makin" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.27% (+108%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "makin" (24H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
815163b92b11ddfc45864a93916eedbf47fe689c5bd395a54f0b926d5bea864dPrevious hash
19999ba2b9549eed8521d1fe3e554577fe3b7864aabd1796512a9d5ecd7b5dbd