Ledger / Prediction #3208 · token · 6H

Will $TOWER still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 15:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Fwg18mABKKRvGtWCuKhzvQEA7PtaBNGV9M69pxRkpump",
    "name": "STONKTOWER",
    "symbol": "TOWER",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 33,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3124.3558024697595,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 777,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 21:31 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T15:15:44.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3077.83603306433,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3326.3280937865566,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3124.3558024697595,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6248.711604939519
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $TOWER would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,078, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $TOWER (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc52a492b366f655471db04612195e02392cf74d28831cf098a5e4cd85c58b044

Previous hash34624be50a21a38223ddb36530b66890fa5c7c7f84d49c20e6259d51949613de