Ledger / Prediction #3219 · narrative · 24H

Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -3.0430015248827162,
      "diversity": -0.39999999999999997
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13314364662299272
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "read",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0007122507122507123,
    "share60": 0.014934533551554828,
    "total15": 701,
    "total60": 2443,
    "momentum": 0.04769152714358194,
    "diversity": 0.4166666666666667,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997767592592592
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13314364662299272
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.018

Log loss0.143

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003942978465271459,
  "shareRatio": 0.5537362729563575,
  "totalAfter": 42861,
  "shareBefore": 0.007130563068600934,
  "totalBefore": 44737,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 169,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 319
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "read" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.39% (-45%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "read" (24H). momentum contributed -3.04 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6322f7095ac2b323a9d0d5403a4f3f41a03fc165c8dfeb8d3eb64cee7d1f4b65

Previous hashcf985e429c34fed758bba7de3fa1dfb2c0bbc5d63f464a16b83195127dddd168