GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3220 · narrative · 24H

Will "keep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2443 launches in the last hour referenced "keep" (5 distinct creators, rank #240). Last 15m momentum 1.87×.

Made2026-10-13 16:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 15:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.6284187078594514,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5194610313829112
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keep",
    "rank60": 240,
    "share15": 0.004985754985754986,
    "share60": 0.0026595744680851063,
    "total15": 701,
    "total60": 2443,
    "momentum": 1.8746438746438747,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946422222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997767592592592
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5194610313829112
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.270
Log loss0.733
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004059634632883041,
  "shareRatio": 0.956102787790787,
  "totalAfter": 42861,
  "shareBefore": 0.004247043833962939,
  "totalBefore": 44737,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 174,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 190
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "keep" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.41% (-4%). PARTIAL.

— "keep" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashee1c17d4016411af041af24b52f51393f8d3384a230b80b12719db5aac93b71b
Previous hash6322f7095ac2b323a9d0d5403a4f3f41a03fc165c8dfeb8d3eb64cee7d1f4b65