Ledger / Prediction #3225 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (41 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.76×.

Made2026-10-13 16:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": 0.565543867460349,
      "diversity": -0.11904761904761901
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6286782752931744
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.044642857142857144,
    "share60": 0.025359424920127795,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 1.7604049493813274,
    "diversity": 0.6507936507936508,
    "launches15": 27,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6286782752931744
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.138

Log loss0.464

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028338342636324603,
  "shareRatio": 1.132641681592376,
  "totalAfter": 2329,
  "shareBefore": 0.02500992457324335,
  "totalBefore": 2519,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.50% → 2.83% (+13%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash884477594145278e5304cb1c777472afdad6e7ebb9e23708bbf3219c572846f0

Previous hash72672229713c672a84479aeaa25594d206e543d6bce11efcfad5dbd686f764c3