Will "runner" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "runner" (27 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.026153743420080287,
      "diversity": -0.2387755102040817
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4478935977411836
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "runner",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.020292207792207792,
    "share60": 0.019768370607028754,
    "total15": 615,
    "total60": 2503,
    "momentum": 1.0264987537714811,
    "diversity": 0.5510204081632653,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 346,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987787037037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4478935977411836
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002369668246445498,
  "shareRatio": 0.34215352281731715,
  "totalAfter": 14770,
  "shareBefore": 0.0069806485817796235,
  "totalBefore": 11317,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 79
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity