Ledger / Prediction #3232 · narrative · 6H
Will "halh" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 34% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 2503 launches in the last hour referenced "halh" (3 distinct creators, rank #240). Last 15m momentum 0.81×.
Made2026-10-13 16:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 16:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -0.20704014374763094,
"diversity": -0.38571428571428573
},
"rawProbability": 0.33635091560400443
},
"features": {
"term": "halh",
"rank60": 240,
"share15": 0.002435064935064935,
"share60": 0.0029952076677316293,
"total15": 615,
"total60": 2503,
"momentum": 0.812987012987013,
"diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 346,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926722222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987787037037037
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.33635091560400443
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.113
Log loss0.410
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0017603249830737983,
"shareRatio": 0.9904938978981558,
"totalAfter": 14770,
"shareBefore": 0.0017672528055138288,
"totalBefore": 11317,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 20
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 34% that "halh" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.18% → 0.18% (-0%). PARTIAL.
— "halh" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8b648c78f18ac290117b9d636adb72345a85643ac593765e3a91dc7e947935f5Previous hash
244399ee778f0c13f12d215b5e0620fb026a9285116a13765bdda030c32cc45b